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Mackerras pendulum for the next Australian federal election
This is the Mackerras pendulum for the Next Australian federal election.
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'.".〔("Division Classifications – House of Representatives - Seat Summary" ), ''Virtual Tally Room 2013'', Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 October 2013.〕
==Pendulum==
The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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